Series Analysis of Crime

Theoretical Background and Hypothesis

From "A qualitative measure of crime risk" by Helen grimbleby, the rate of crime change is proportional to the cost of risk imposed by resources vested towards combating the crime. This implies that an increase in the cost of combating crime results in a decrease in the final chances of happening of the crime. In consideration, the factors that determine the rate of crime change are more or less the same as the measures aimed at combating crime. The general factors that determine the rate of change in crime in the city of New York forms a topic for research. This is because of the diversity in the factors bearing in mind that they span from different policies spanning from different leadership roles stipulated by changing government systems from 1965-2010. This implies that the degree of crime rate is controlled by policing where the form of legislation is the factor underpinning crime rates. For instance, more resources of crime reduction like involvement of police aids in reduction of crime prevalence rates through crackdown on criminal related events like drug abuse. Moreover, involvement of lead agencies empowered to prevent incidences of crime forms vital responses to vulnerability to the scenes of crime, which also affects the rate of change. Overly, the rate of crime change in the city of New York from 1965-2010 is determined by the involvement of resources vested towards combating crime, where the more the resources, the less the incidences of crime.

Consequently, from the crime rate of crime change in the city of New York has largely been influenced by the use of drugs, where the rate of increased use of drugs is proportional to the rate of increase in crime. This implies that the forces of checking increased use of drugs affect the crime rate, where this effort is proportional to the rate change in crime; standardization in the efforts that combat drug use has resulted in the reduction of the crime rates. This is in relation to Marissa potchak in the synthesis of "why crime rates fell", where the rate is closely linked to the action of the government in sound policing. This implies that the social, economic and political institutions are determinant factors to fluctuating rates of crime in the city of New York. The basic impact of such institutions has been influential in the rate of crime since the institutional formation forms a legal link to institutional injustices such as corruption, which ahs been on the decline. Moreover, sound policing through examination of the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and rates of common crime could lead to ascertaining the relationship between crime rates.

This article synthesized a focus on the effect of consumer income in relation to the rate of robbery between the years 1950-2000, where the rate declined with increased consumer income, while the converse was also true in that amongst households with decrementing income, there was an increase in the rates of burglary and motor vehicle thefts. This leads to the conclusion that consumer sentiment had a significant influence on robbery and property crime rates. During the early 1990s, the gross household consumer income accounted for a large percentage of crime declines in that there was an increased income from proper legislation systems leading to an increase in gross domestic income to give a question for deliberation on whether income should precede employment or employment precedes income. For this matter, the collective economic impact forms a topic for research on crime rates. Besides, the changing economic condition has more influence on crime rate than unemployment rate and GDP, which particularly forms the basic issue for research in this paper.

In this research material, there is an evident elaboration on the rate of crime change in New York City before and after 1990s. The author focuses on policing in New York City, the number of police departments was made greater than before and there was increased participation in police in terms of action to combat crime, which played an important role to lower the crime rate in the city. The author also reveals the efforts to combine more corps and new tactics like the involvement of computer technology to detect crime scenes, which impacted on the final trend of the crime. Although the efforts from the police department to oversee security measures in terms of crime reduction included apprehending of criminal gangs, the author categorically places his bid in realization of the goal of increased security without an increase in the number of police cells. To a large extent, this means that sound processes of rehabilitation programs categorically helped the reduction in crime rates during the stipulated time. Observance of the trend of crime rate change with the rates of adherence to rehabilitation programs could give lead to conclusion of the impact of rehabilitation programs to the rates of crime in the city of New York, where the author emphasized on the use of a few cross-section data to distinguish conditions between States.

There was an evident use of independent measures to test official statistical trends in New York while the elaboration of figures was through graphical analysis. This led to the conclusion that the general trend of crime rate in the city of New York was proportional to the adherence of rehabilitation programs, while this was inversely proportional to the number of prisoners detained on crime related events’ collected data mainly from before and after 1990s, which divided his emphasis into two parts. This research on the background of crime rate expansion before 1990s is very essential, while the analysis of policing therein would be useful in analyzing the determinants for this paper. Further, the use of graphical analysis use of graph and trend figure is essential for making comparisons for the factors determining this rate change. The question for deliberation is the impact of sound policing as a factor underpinning the crime rate change in the city of New York from 1965-2011. Moreover, does cost of combating really crime matter?

Hypothesis

The rate of crime change in the city of New York has been influenced by a number of factors. policing has been a major strategy used for combating crime from 1965-2010, where the rate of crime change is proportional to the mode of policing, while the cost of combating crime is inverse to the probability of vulnerability to crime, where the gross domestic income is the constant of this proportionality. The hypothesis in this study is to investigate the factors that have informed the present state of crime in New York City

Research Proposal

The theoretical basis for answering the research question is as to, whether the cost of combating crime matters. Additionally, does the trend of crime rate involves a correlation between the trends and the cost of production in the crime industry does not only look at the cost vested towards combating crime, but also the cost of living in akin to the gross domestic product. The correlation between these relationships and the evident effort vested in by policy makers could give lead to a conclusion on the trend of crime rate in the city of new York from 1965-2010. Cost is synonymous to the gross domestic income where alignment of existing literature and study of current trends is essential in determining past events, bearing in mind that the past shapes the future.

The existing theories provide evidence of an increased trend in terms of adherence to cessation in crime whenever the cost of combating crime is high. This implies that the general platform for analysis will seek to establish the relationship between the cost of crime and the rate of crime, where the depended variable would be the rate of crime while the cost of crime would form he independent variable. Correlation between the two; bearing in mind that the cost of crime is the cost of all factors that aid in crime reduction while the rate of crime change is either a reduction or increase in the forms of crime for the designated period, would lead to a conclusive evidence on the factors that determined the rate of crime. In real synthesis, the cost of a good is inverse to its rate of consumption, where the more costly evaluable s the less the rate of consumption. This applies to the crime situation, where it should be evident that the higher the cost of combating crime the lower the probability of participation in criminal activities.

On the other hand, the increase in the policing projects like rehabilitation programs as opposed to the creation of more police cells is has affected the rate of crime change in he city of New York spanning from the year 1965-2010. A close examination of the policy strategies and the number of arrests during this period of time could give lead to the conclusion of whether the right policing system affected the rate of crime in the city. This could be through analysis of current trends of policing verses the linearity of criminals to the policing systems, which could give a trend possible for construction of the evidence of policing a factor underpinning the crime rate change. This could be through analysis of the modes of policing as the independent variable, while the rate of adherence to rehabilitation programs could be used as the depended variable. In this case, this correlation could give lead to valuable evidence of a trend that works in correlation with another research formed by the rate of criminal arrests verses the rate of crime change. The two analytical study forums are essential in depicting the least factors that have led to change in the crime rate in the city of New York from 1965-2010. In this essence, if the rate of crime decreases with the increased modes of policing, then a positive argument to the research will be evident. However, if the rate is converse to the modes of policing, then other factors would be established to the crime rate change. Consequently, a reduced rate of crime due to increase in the number of criminal arrests could give lead to judgment that stringent measures to combat crime is the factor the reduced rates of crime.

Results

.

Figure1.1 New York crime rate change from 1965-2010.

Source: FBI, uniform crime reports from 1965-2010

The probable resultant evidence should be that the cost of combating crime is proportional to the rates of crime, while increased policing through rehabilitative modes as opposed to creation of prisons is inverse to the rate of crime, where sound policing results to a decline in the trend of new crime rates. This is in coherent with literature since the rate of crime moves with obscurity in efforts that limit the vice. From the table, an increase in the population means an increase in the new crime rates, which implies that the cost for combating crime should be linear with this population. In evidence where the cost is lower that the population requirement, the rate of crime rate change is lower due to limited resources vested towards combating the crime in relation to the population. In real essence, the population also matters in terms of crime rates since it is the source of depletion of resources that combat criminal activities. In addition, the population forms new modes of crime scenario. This implies that the constant for proportionality between the cost of crime, the rate of crime and the modes of policing is the population.

Methodology

The basic requirement is to ascertain the fundamental concept of resources vested towards combating crime in the rate of crime, where this research will involve setting up of research questions depicting the trend of crime rates in the city of New York for the next three months, which would be evaluated against the cost of crime. This will then be correlated with the population to give the constant of proportionality. Firstly, this research would seek the reports from the criminal investigations department to seek the exact number of reported crimes for the next three months. This would give the rate of crime rate. On the other hand, the special programs ministry and FBI reports would also be evaluated to give the trend for he past literature on how the trend has been moving. This would give the crime rate trends in the past. Consequently, there would be evaluation of the budgetary allocations from the governance system of New York City for the next three months, while completed records of expenditure from literature would help ascertain resource allocation to crime.

The research will then evaluate the population size in terms of the entire city residence from the reports of the relevant ministry. This would help to ascertain the moving averages of crime rate and population. There would then be testing of the hypothesis with these trends where the cost vested towards crime would be analyzed in relation to the rate of crime change. Conversely, there would be evaluation of the policing strategies ad their impact on the rate of crime change, where there would be assessment of the forms of policing like rehabilitation with close correlation to the modes like increased apprehension of prisoners. This would give the relationship between sound policing and rate in crime change through depicting the number of the converts who adhere to the rehabilitation program in relation to the number of these apprehended to prison cells. This would then be correlated with the rat of crime change in the stipulated period to give the evidence of the trend verses the policing mode, while the total population would also be sourced to ascertain if it is a constant for proportionality for this research.

Collection of datum for this research would involve the random sampling method, where moving averages for small populations would be the representation of the while population. This implies that the portion of a sample taken from a specific location in he entire area would represent the whole area, since it is difficult to determine the entire surface extensions due to vast magnanimity of ht sample space. The moving averages would be calculated to represent the entire population, where there would be calculation of the percentage representing the researched sample as a fraction of the while sample. Multiplying this sample with a whole number would give lead to statistical datum of the entire region of study. Consequently, the randomized sampling method would also be efficient since the questioners would not be distributed on an equal basis.

The datum is the resultant evidence of the research project, which would include the trend of cost of combating crime, the rate of crime change, the number of prisoners apprehended and the number of those adhering to behavior change through rehabilitation. It should be noted that data is the information in its raw form where its interpretation starts with analysis of trends and consequent evidence based on the statistics. The datum for this research will be a cacophony of vague although trendy statistics depicting either an incrementing or a decrementing trend.

The unit of analysis for this research is the constant of proportionality, which is basically, the population. This is a factor of proportionality and does not change with other factors or ne that does not depend on the rest. For instance, the whether there is an increase or decrease in the crime rate, the population of the city would still be on an incrementing trend. The major strengths of the data collected for this research would be the trendy depiction, where they are easy to follow. This implies that it being a representation of the basic figures of moving averages, it would be easy to say f the trend is increasing or decreasing. This would be essential in giving a conclusive judgment about the nature of the results. Conversely, the weakness of the results would be assumptions that the sample of area represents the whole area, which would to a bias conclusion in terms of the trend since an area of representation only gets full responsibility of a particular trend if it is specifically analyzed and not its area of representation. Moreover, there would be bias in responses since the respondents might give views depending on their own preferences as opposed to the real trend on the ground.

The major questions for analysis for this research involves synthesis of questioners depicting statements, such as, the cost of combating crime in the city of New York has been on the rise since the past three years. This question would end with a yes or no tag to give the respondent a chance to articulate the best out of their knowledge in order to give precise but conclusive evidence. In such cases, the independent variable, while the rate of crime change would form the dependent variable, where the most expected results would be for every increased cost of production in terms of combating crime results in a consequent reduced crime rate, due to increased effort. On the other hand, the control variables for this research would be the population size, which greatly determines the extent to, which these resources would be viable to combat crime, since an increase in population size results in a subsequent increase in the crime rates. if there is no increase in the cost of combating crime, the rate would upsurge due to lack of sustainability in terms of cost and consumption. Conclusively, the material from these research are evidently vital in ascertaining the factors that affect the crime rate change in the city of New York, where relaying such results could help in determining the past trends and a projection into the future, which necessitates its validity.